What to do in strong markets The Best Business Coach I Simon Severino

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What to do in strong markets The Best Business Coach I Simon Severino

 

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Hey Sprinters today, we talk what to do in bull markets in strong markets. First thing is we need to understand what is signal and what is noise? Are we in a bull cycle? In which stage is it beginning of the bull cycle, the middle of the bull cycle and of bull cycle. It's hard to know exactly where we are, but we can know roughly in which stage we are. And this is enough for now. So we are talking today, investment system. And if you are new here on this channel, we talk about your, you create your revenue systems.


The first one is how you earn and how you can increase profitability. The second one is how you can save. And currently the best saving is Bitcoin. And third, how can you put a small part of it? The part that you don't need over the next eight to 16 weeks, and can invest that in order either to build your wealth via concentrated portfolio, or keep your wealth via a diversified portfolio. And we don't give investment at wise, but I share with you what I have learned over the years on how to create an investment system. And I will tell you what I'm buying, what I'm selling and how I decide and how I structure my decisions so that you can create your investment system. And why do we need a system? Why to just pick something and win, because it doesn't work that way in this way, you would have emotions in there.


And if you have emotions there, you are sure to lose money. So investment system means you need a system for portfolio construction for asset selection, you need an entry system and an exit system without the motions. You need a research system. When a body says, Hey, this is gone. This is gone now a hundred X, or really let me go through my 10 points research checklist. And I will tell you in an hour, if I believe it also, or if I found some signals some, some red flag and from time to time, you need to rebalance and to take profits. So in this channel, we go over every single one of them. Today, we talk specifically what to do in a strong market. Last video was about what to do in a weak market today. What should we do in a strong market?


So we have a portfolio con constructed. We know how much we allocate in crypto in percentage in stocks, in percentage, in cash, in percentage, et cetera, and real estate in percentage we know which assets we find generally valuable. So we bet that they will be around in five years, we have an entry system, we have an exit system and we know how to research. And now it's about rebalancing. So we, I do this every Sunday, half an hour. I look at the markets while my kids sleep. I look at the markets and and then I look at the, at, at my overall portfolio construction. If you don't know it, it looks like this. So what's my cash percentage. My crypto percentage, my alternatives, my real estate and my stocks. And what's the ideal. And do I need to do something? What's the gap?

Review all the growth rates


And if the gap is for example here, like a 10% gap, then I look at that category and go through that degree to rebalance. Now in a strong market, we just don't buy anything. Strong market is time to take cash, to, to take profits, to build cash positions because the next bear market will come. Things will always evolve in S curves. So you have always a, a curves cycles going and while one cycle starts the next cycle. And so you always wave waves and wave formation stages in a bull market. The cycle is, is an up cycle. And in the bear market cycle, it's a down cycle, but the waves will always be in an S shape. And they will always go up and then go down again. And the next wave goes up like the study, the ocean, then, you know, wave formations and cycles.


Now, what do I do during a strong market? I buy nothing and I review all the growth rates. So I go through my asset and see which one was growing at how much percentage in order to do that, you need to create, I have a spreadsheet that you can use. It's at strategy, sprint.com/tools. And you can download my spreadsheets because it has the cost position. When did you buy and the percentage growth rate since then? So it's already, you don't need to build a spreadsheet. I like building spreadsheet. So I built one for me and I'm sharing it with you. And then so I see exactly, oh, this went up 112%. Mm. Okay. And then I review my assumptions on risk. So are my assumptions on risk still valid, for example, this is an assumption risk. I think that the, the most safe asset right now is Bitcoin, but also the reward will be lowest.


The, then there are more risky things like Solan and Ethereum. And then there are very risky things like PKA adult chain link Marick and then there are absolutely speculative high risk thing, like so, or Phantom or decent land that are very, very small positions. And basically that's just betting that's really casino if you want nothing. I, I recommend and nothing that I would personally put in more than 0.5% of my overall portfolio. Now review as assumptions on risk is the risk curve still like that? Is it true? Did something change? Am I biased? For example, right now, the metaverse place coming. And right now I'm reviewing, how will that curve evolve? We are obviously the beginning of the curve, but which part of the beginning is it really begun or is it at the very, very, very, very, very, very pre beginning.


So where are we in that curve? How long will the curve last? Is it five years? Is it 10 years? And these are my assumptions on the cycle and what, what's the next S curve coming? And what's the NFT curve look like, et cetera. So review assumptions on what to hold right now. It's very clear for me. I hold forever Bitcoin. I will never sell it. And I, I sell everything else that my personal assumption right now on what to hold and what to sell. And so the risk is stuff I sell and the depreciating stuff I sell and the appreciating safe stuff I hold. And the only safe appreciating thing right now is with coin, according to my numbers and do your own, your research and find your own numbers. And then what happens is whenever something's doubles so grows by 100%, I sell 50% of the shares of the asset when it doubles again, I sell to 5%.

Going back to the system


And when that was again I had saved 12 and a half percent, et cetera. At infinitum. One example recently I bought 100 Tesla shares at 301 in, in August, 2020, I then Tesla reached in December 600, $2 per share. I sold 50 shares. It reached $1,204 in November, 2021. I sold 25 shares and whenever it would hit 2,400, I would sell 12.5 shares. Now why I have picked this kind of exit strategy and not others in how you can pick your own? I think the important thing is that you leave emotions out. So you need a system that you can trust based on numbers, based on reality, on what's really going on and not based on, you know, I feel now a rush to do something, or I have to do something as soon as you feel that stop doing whatever you do. Go back to your system, go through your checklist, do one step after the other.


So no emotions in investing just reality. And this is something that helps me. So I don't, even if I'm super excited about something, I go through the checklist, it takes me half an hour to an hour to do it by that time I'm, I'm emotionless again. And I'm, I'm more rational. And this is what to do in strong markets. Basically keep cool, buy nothing and learn, learn from observations, learn, because it will take you years to learn the main thing. What is the main thing? The main thing is what is signal and what is noise.


This is the main thing to learn the difference between signal and noise. What is noise, all the, everything that has a dog on it is noise. Basically. What is signal signal is everything that tells you real market cycles, really where the SC curves are and what is going on and what's next and what the real trends are. That's based on numbers and on cycles and on from the mental analysis and on technical analysis from the mental analysis is everything long term. Over 12 months, technical analysis is everything short term. So this is what you do in strong markets. The most important thing is no emotions system. Instead that will help you keep your earned wealth and the wealth that you created and that you wanna either grow or have as a legacy to coming generations. So hope that helps enjoy the strong markets and keep rolling.

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