Calculating riskreward in Loopring, Enjin, ETH, Solana


Take profits and exit curves


Heads there is bad news, good news. All at ones, we will look at the cycles because as you know, we want to position ourselves to be at the beginning of the right S curve. And when we see that we are at, towards the end of an S curve, we wanna take profits and exit that curve. So let's find out which curves are going on right now. And as always, we wanna improve your revenue system, saving system and investment systems. So this is how you take the right decisions. Many of you have said, yes, Simon, but it's too advanced. I cannot do it on my own. CA do you have a sprint coach to do that with me? Yes. We have strategy Click schedule a call with us. We are happy to help if you need more hand holding, but for the advanced ones here is where we share the journey with you of understanding, researching and finding patterns in something that is absolutely not over ball, but it is understandable if we look at it in the wave cycle approach.

And if we use numeric, quantitative, psychological biological models that help us understand what is going on here on the human level, on a technical level, on a economic level, on a macroeconomic level, this is why today we start with macro economy. And then I tell you what I have sold today and why we go through how you can protect yourself against the risks that are here. We have a ton of risks right now this week. And also what I have been buying this week, because there are also a lot of opportunities. This is one wave ending means always one wave starting, all right. And multiple waves at the same time. Of course. So, all right, let's start with the good news. If you're funneling, if you're following this channel, you have probably invested with us in math a couple months ago, and again, a couple weeks ago.

And if this is the case con congrats to you you deserve popping a bottle of champagne because matic was, as we expected a very, very undervalued, very solid layer, one play, and it has turned out to be so is it time to sell? Depends on your exit system. My exit system says sell anytime you double. So I will sell a portion of that ID C out, which means, you know, how you can DCA in dollar cost average in, by going slightly in, in a, in in an ongoing way. I will take profits in an ongoing way out of matic, but I plan to keeping most of Matic because this is not the end. We are in the middle of the journey here. Now, some bad news. If we look at the macro economic situation here first of all, how we do macro, we look at, and at the Dixie, what is the VIX?


Taking a good look at the VIX

What is the Dixie? The VIX is the volatility index. And if you look at just the numbers, the biggest selloff we had this year was in March and the VX C how I call, but it's, it's the volatility index. The volatility index in March has spiked. And that was the signal for many traders to sell off risky assets. So they did. And when you start that, then you have this psychology and mass psychology and behavior spreading, oh, they're selling is cell. And when more people sell, then sometimes you have a spiral down. That's why we look at the VIX and the VIX is going towards the 30, which is not a good sign. So this might spread fear in the Mar and when people are fearful, especially the retail investors, they tend to sell their most risky positions. So that's one thing.

The second thing to understand macroeconomic backdrop right now is the Dixie, which is the us dollar currency index, a strong. So what does this measure? This does measure the dollar against other foreign currency against the Euro, the Y, et cetera. Now, again, March, we are talking risk management here, right? So what was going on March 23rd, 2020, which was the last big selloff, this spectacular one. Yeah, the market crash. So we were at hundred and one, which is why I am watching like a Hawk, the us dollar currency index. And you should also, and watch, watch it move. I noted myself to be very careful if it goes over 94 and it went over 94, November 8th. So we have something here to watch and it's not going down. It's going up. So if this reaches 97, which is here, it's not far away, I am concerned for a possible risk of traders selling of their risky assets.

And if they sell off, then you can have these negative spirals. And we don't know, are they going to last a couple weeks or are they creating more effects? Because in a complex adaptive system and our society is a technological and human and economical, complex adaptive system. When you change one part, you don't know what else you are changing because these parts are all interconnected. This is systemic thinking. So if somebody starts selling, then you might have effects that we cannot see right now. And we cannot calculate, but it's really ski. And that's why I'm sharing this with you. And that's why I am protecting my own portfolio. So what I did this week, and this is not financial advice, I'm just telling you what I did. I did sell all my NAEC positions and I need did sell all my S and P 500.

Why? Because I don't know the general market, how it will evolve over the next month. I just don't know. Nobody knows. So I do not trust it. And I need confidence in an asset. Also, they did enough, well for me over the last 12 months. So the NAS did around percent growth. The S and P did around 25, lately 23% growth. It's fine for me. I take the profits and I move it too faster. Horses. What are the fastest horses right now? Let's jump directly there. Oh, by the way, over the last weeks, I have also sold Tesla, but not for a specific reason. It, it die bolt. So I bought it 300. I sold at 600. I sold it 1,200 because that's my system. No emotions, I just follow the checklist. And so I have still some Tesla and I'm positive, and I would buy Tesla again, if it ever goes down to 850, maybe 900.

And but for now Tesla, I'm happy that I sold it, especially because space X is having troubles. And now Elon Musk will be dividing his attention more to space X, which means less attention on Tesla. And also that for me to risky of a thing moving forward, because I cannot see how this plays out. Nobody knows again very risky, very interdependent multivariable situation. I don't touch that too risky. Now, where do I see more potential and less risk because we want to have the risk adjusted reward asset. So what I do is I look at the waves that are happening right now. And where is the money flowing to? We have two spaces right now where the money is flowing to money is flowing from shred finance to the finance. So from traditional finance to decentralized finance and the biggest place in the central and finance of are, of course, Ethereum and Ethereum is ready to rumble.

It's starting the engine. You wouldn't think because today it's down 5%. So no body would say most people say, oh, it's going down. It's not, it's consolidating, it's starting the engine for me, Ethereum is the safest defi play. And so all my S and P 500 and Nestec and Tesla, I have put mainly into, to Ethereum this week. And what else is the defi play that I've been playing Solana? Another layer, one that is for me the most derisked high potential. Why do I say that? So Ethereum is the risked by the network effects. Even if some people say, oh, the gas fees are so high. Yes, that's a problem for the retail investors. It's not a problem for the big institutions, institutions that send a hundred million worth. They don't care about paying 200 bucks for the transaction.

Commitment to the game

They're used to it because traditional finance is, is that expensive and more so for them, it's not a problem. That's why we still have the big institutions, the so-called whales coming into Ethereum. And the network effect is so strong. Number of validators node users, developers strong enough to make it right now at de-risked high growth opportunity. I stay with Ethereum. The second one is Lana and Lana, especially because all developers, if you look at the number of developers, moving to the different layer ones, Solana is right now, a winner, the most developers rely on Sanna, and I trust the developers because they know what's working and they commit, they have skin in the game. They commit their time, their career. They, they will not pick the worst asset and they're moving to Sanna for their reasons. And then I have also conviction because of the retailer reasons.

The retailer want something cheaper and faster, and that's Solan. The developers want something that works and that has a future. And that's Solan. So Solan is the second one that I've been investing in. Also fun, Tom, because I believe in it as a layer one, and it has had some dips over the last days and hours that I have been using to buy one new entry in my top 10 list, which was not there so far is looping. Luing is also a layer one solution. But with the new technology, the CK roll up, which will, will be needed it's built on Ethereum and it will be needed. And so you see the continuation of the pattern of the story and why I invest in it. Because if I believe in, in Ethereum, it makes sense to go further down. And also the Ziki rollup will be a very important rollup.

Risking in NFT

Now metaverse, let's talk metaverse loop, ring, and engine are my metaverse play. Money is still flowing into met versus NFT. I do not touch the NFTs themselves, even if I get 10, 10 telegram ideas per day from, from the community, Simon, look at this, look at this. I don't even look at it because you have the surface level, which is highly risky. You know, now it's open sea tomorrow. It can be something else. And X infinity, to me, it's just a game. So it's too risky. Yes. The money is flowing there, but it's also high risk. If the next game comes that, you know, and then everybody moves to sandbox. Why not? What is, what is hindering people moving from, from a, a infinity? I mean, the users stop playing ax, infinity, and, and start playing gala. There's nothing except that they have tokens, but against web, they can, they can sell the tokens.

So I don't understand that space enough to, into single NFTs or single games. So I wouldn't touch it. What I do is I look at the picks and shovels. And if you remember, during the gold rush, most of the money was made with picks and shovels. So it's, everybody's looking for gold. You don't know who will find gold and who won't, that's high risk, but you know, that everybody needs a shovel, needs a pick to find gold. So if you are the one settl the shovels, the bottle of water so the infrastructure play, then that's the best of the best positioning. And as a strategy advisor, and I'm still, you know, the CEO of strategy sprint. So I'm a strategy advisor. And as a strategy advisor, you always look at positioning yourself. So the best position for me is now to pick the infrastructure place of the metaverse.

And today I've been buying engine and Luing and Ethereum, because I think there will be no metaverse these three things. And if you look at some of the hottest games and what are the technical infrastructure plays, you will always find engine there and maybe find more looping in the future. So that's my bet. I bet on not on the general markets, that's too risky for me. I bet on the decentralized finance space and on the metaverse space, but in, metaverse not the manifestations, not the surface phenomena, which can easily be changed and will be changed, but on the picks and shovels, which at least for the next 12 months will be needed. And it's not so easy to come up with new solutions for that. So, so fast hope that helps. Let me know what you need. Over the next month, I will sell more and buy more. And I will share this here every day with you. So let me know what you need and keep rolling everybody. Bye. Bye.

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