Recovery and non recovery on Bitcoin

Let's bring your revenue systems, saving systems and investment systems forward. Today, we look at your investment systems, let's go to the market, see what's going on. We had a very bad weekend. I did an extra quick update after hiking with my boys. When I saw all your concerns, let let's look at the markets. Macro first, we see that the VIX is still very high with 29. It was 30, uh, over the weekend. It's Monday now, VIX still quite high. And, um, the, also the Dixie, the, the dollar strength compared to the other currencies is at 96, which is concerning. If you remember around six days ago, pre crash, that was my alarm to you guys. And that was was what led me to sell all my NSEC position in all my S and P 500 positions, because I saw uncertainty and volatility is spiking, which is sometimes an indicator for, uh, strong corrections or even crashes.


So, and that happened, uh, minus 30%, four years, four days later, or three and a half days later. And we had the chance to shop strongly. Now let's look at, uh, still buying opportunities and let's look at the recovery or non recovery of Bitcoin. How is Bitcoin doing? Because everything as all other crypto assets follow Bitcoin. So let's start there. Top assets, Bitcoin, the, they look at Bitcoin looks consolidation, no recovery. So far, the weak looks also like a Oli, no recovery. So far, the month looks consolidation. The three months look healthy. The year to date looks very healthy and bull. So that's the current situation. If we see Bitcoin recovering in U shape or V shape over the next 48 hours, then that's the best bullish signal we can get. If we see it consolidating, we have to watch signals. If we see it, uh, breaking below $28,000, that would be, uh, bearish.


That would be the end of the positive network effects and an invalidation of our Bitcoin hypothesis that we carry forwards here. So, but that's far away. We are at 48,000 0 8 5. We are in a consolidation during a correction inside of a bull run. That's where we are right now. Bitcoin Ethereum Solana doing really well, our top three. And then we have Cardan, which I have never covered because my philosophy is just things that I don't like. I just don't cover. So I will not, um, do long analysis on things that are not worth analyzing. And so we have never covered Carda here on this channel. I know this is very counter intuitive and counter stream, but that's, that's what, what the numbers tell me. And we have also never covered X, R P, and we have covered polka.polka.is currently in my top 10 is not showing the strength that we expected.


And so it might not be in the top 10 of 2022, which we are going to announce soon. And te Luna has done very well and has surprised. I, I do not hold te, but let me know if you want me to dig deeper. This might be actually a candidate for a top 10 of next year, but I have not run it to through the research checklist, the 10 steps checklist. If you want me to do that, I will put the time in there. It might be, uh, in a candidate do coin, will we have never covered. And avalanche is something that was on our top 10 list last year, it did 10 X, and then I committed to a very long, and I think it was a mistake because with 10 X, I was so positively, um, impressed that I have staked it for a whole year.

Don't commit to anything 12 months

I became a delegator or validator, uh, one of these official, uh, long committed roles, which has now, which has been stuck until September of next year. And now avalanche is doing really bad. But, um, and also I don't like the, to omics. So it's pumping from a price perspective, but I don't like what they're doing in terms of inflationary, uh, to omics. So I'm stuck. Um, I will stay there, but my tip to you is, do not commit to anything 12 months. You can stake. You can lend, you can borrow for much, um, with much more freedom of choice. You can still stay liquid by having your, your assets on a lending platform that gives you interest, but you can take it out any time. If things change, these are the top assets. Then let's have a look at the defi space, decentralized Val UN swap and Penske real doing really, really doing well.


But also they are not on our top 10 list for strategic reasons because they are so easily, um, uh, sub to substitute. And I think they will be substituted soon. Luing is on our top 10 list is one of the newest, if not the newest Phantom, and Luing have been my two additions to my portfolio, this water and, uh, maker do has been on our top 10 list. And the curve is still on our top 10 list. Compound is on our top 10 list. I'm not sure if compound will qualify for next year. We will see. And then there is radio, which I am watching. It's a Lana project and I'm, I'm so bullish about everything Solana right now that I'm also considering doing a deep analysis on radio. Let me know that and perpetual protocol I was in for a short period of time for a couple months.


And I have to say, maybe I should reconsider looking at perpetual call. Let me know if you want also analysis on that layer. One smart contracts. We have Ethereum Solan, Cardo, uh, leading then Paul Kado and Terra Teun is really interesting. Maybe we should have a look at that avalanche and a grant doing the best, this, this, uh, and day. And then we have a lot of things that we do not, uh, cover here. Currencies, not so interesting exchange token, good to see looping also there and the curve. So from our top 10, we have blueprint and curve right now from our current of 10. Let's see how these things evolve. Now, many of you had questions around, Hey, Simon, um, I'm new here? How should I do my top 10? I would say, if you are new here, then don't even start with a tend start with the top three. The first thing that you wanna think about is your overall portfolio construction


And your overall portfolio construction can be something very, very safe. Like for example, real estate, I have 20% real estate, but also, um, depending on your age and on your situation, it might be 30%, 35% real estate, like really, um, hard stuff, uh, owning parts of building complexes or small apartments that can easily be rented. Um, in Europe, if you buy real estate, you wanna have small apartments that you can easily rent, uh, 50, 56, 60 square meters in an urban setting that are easy to have above 90%, uh, uh, rented out all the time. And, um, then you, you want to think about having stocks. Stocks are still a thing, even in the crypto era, and then pick your percent. My percentage of stocks, I think 35%, and then pick your crypto crypto assets allocation with my, which might also be around 30%. And then you have alternatives and cash, which should be the smallest positions in here. This is your over overall portfolio construction. When you have your overall portfolio. Now let's look at the top 10. So you might have your top 10 stocks and top 10 crypto assets.

The top 3 stocks

If you are new start with the top three, my top three stocks were historically Tesla, Amazon, Google. They are now Amazon Google square because I have sold a lot of Tesla 10 days ago, 14 days a ago when it was at one thousand one thousand two hundred, I'm still bullish about Tesla. I did a whole video about that. I'm still bullish, but I sold at 1,200. I will go back in if it goes to 800 5900, 950, I will go back in, I still, still long term trend, but I focus on the fastest horses of this quarter. And this is for me square, Amazon, Google, absolutely clear Amazon and Google are a hundred percent validated. Square is a bet. Uh, and, and I'm sure about it. Uh, it's it, it has always been in my top 10, but I am moved aggressively into more square over the last months, then crypto crypto, really the biggest part in my case, it's, um, 70% Bitcoin then really, really big chunks are Solan.


Then comes Ethereum. Funny enough, I should buy more Ethereum because I've now more Solana than Ethereum. We did so well. And then, and then I have, uh, the many speculative ones, but overall, my speculation is 10% of my, of my whole crypto thing. And now if we go to the speculative ones I have in their.link, polygon has been doing really, really well, um, and better than expected and dot and link have, have done less than expected, but I'm, I, I keep chain link cause it's the number one in its category, uh, Oracles and, um, I'm might get rid of dot over time, um, dot link. Then we have some new entries here. Manna gala gala has not convinced me, but there is a big event in Las Vegas. In two weeks. I will wait for that pump and then reconsider if, to keep them Manal curve, Phantom loop, ring, uh, chilis, et cetera.


But these are very, very small positions. We're talking here 0.5%, 0.8% each. And then we have, uh, same thing in the stocks. I have some, uh, health care, health tech actually, and tech, um, mainly I have no S and P van anymore than no, no Nasts anymore. So if you're thinking about your top 10, start with your top three, get used to selling and buying and selling and buying because there is a whole psychology in there and you will do a ton of mistakes. Like I told you some of my mistakes. Uh, the biggest mistake was I bought solid as L and D, which was an ID. I still hold it, but it's half the worth, uh, of its ID price, initial, um, deck, uh, entry, because it was really good in terms of the research was 10 out of 10, uh, strong investors, strong ecosystem, Solana, great product.


I tested it, it works. Um, I was convinced about the team. I was convinced about the they can build, I was convinced about the they can market. Um, it, it, it got a 10 of 10 still tanked because of many reasons, macro reasons. And when you, when you go early, when you go into such small caps, there are so many variables that you cannot, uh, foresee. And that's why I'm staying away of ideas. The next time, it's really important when you have a plan that you stick to the plan. And the hardest thing is then to get seduced because you know, your buddies tell you and you see something hundred Xing and you go, oh my God, I should go there. Then you see it dipping a little bit and you go in there, but it's really, you are chasing it's it's it's over already.


And so it's not good to chase. It's better to wait, have your list of top 10 and then wait for them to come to you when the price is right, then you buy a little bit more. And in order to through that, have 20%, 30%, um, dry powder ready, and dry powder is not cash it's it's, uh, it's better to have stable coins that you are getting a five, six, 7%, maybe 10% for, uh, all the time. The, but when the dip is here, you can go and buy of your top tens. Hope that helps keep rolling everybody.