Solana, Luna and Bitcoin

 

 

The fun in investment system


Hey sprinters. Welcome back to the daily market update. Let's see, what's going on very red day, Bitcoin down $46,990. And with Bitcoin, everything down Solana, which yesterday morning was at 150. So it seems to have bottomed out. I, I have to say I had, I'm always proud when I nail some bottoms or some tops, which I, I usually don't nail perfectly, but I think yesterday I nailed Solana at 150, which is fun. It's not super important. As a long term investor who holds these things 12 to 2 94 months, the 10 horses and Bitcoin, I hold it forever. So it's not really important to nail bottoms and to nail tops in, in our method, which is the, the investment system. But it's still fun. It's like, you know, it's a bit competitive against yourself. It's like people who like to play golf or people who like to, to do running or swimming, it's fun.


And Ethereum is holding quite well actually. And all the good stuff is down, which means today might be a buying day. We will see in a moment if it makes sense to buy or not. And if it makes sense, then what exactly should we buy engine FTO, manna, avalanche, DOMA, all our favorites are down right now. And same thing in the stock world, Amazon, Google, Tesla, square paper, or MicroStrategy, clean spark, hot riot, Coinbase, pager duty path, crisp. Everything is down right now. So let's have a look at our thesis. And if that changes the thesis, let's look at the long cycles and short cycles so that you can decide if it's time to buy, if it's time to do nothing, or if it's time to sell, let's dive deeper. Let's go into the illiquid supply. Thank you glass note for the, these on chain metrics, which are really the best thing that that we have, you know, we don't see inside the stocks.


I don't know what's going on in the meeting at Tesla, in the Berlin facility at Tesla. So it's a black box, actually. It's speculation. When we buy stocks, really we can do from the mental analysis, which we do. We can do technical analysis, which we do, but it's still speculation because we don't really know what's going on in there. So reality rate 20% and this 20% we analyze here on the channel, but it's still just 20% on the other side with on chain metrics. It's, immutable, it's transparent. Nobody can change it. So you really know what's going on. That's why here we, we talk about revenue systems. We talk about investment systems and in the investment systems, we really talk about the saving systems, Bitcoin, but also the hard and fast the hard assets and the fast and the fast horses really are a couple of stocks right now, but many cryptos.

Illiquid versus liquid supply


So let's go there. Everything moves with Bitcoin. So if Bitcoin goes down, everything else will go down in crypto. So let's understand if our thesis is still actual, do the numbers tell us that the bull market is over and we are in a beginning of a bear market. Was it the top? Let's look at on chain metrics. One is illiquid supply. What is illiquid versus liquid supply? Illiquid means people have taken it off the exchanges. So if you buy it on coin base or bin Orco, and you have it on the exchange, that's liquid because you plan to move it. That's why you have it on the exchange. It's riskier, but you wanna move it. You wanna buy something with it. You wanna sell it. That's a liquid position. You have your asset in a liquid because you wanna move them. Illiquid is you take them off the exchange.


You put them in your self custody, which means some form of storage, cold storage, hot storage. That is your wallet. You are the only person having the keys. And that is when you plan to not move them for a while. That's the set and forget thing or hold for 10 years. Cause remember every investor that made life changing wealth, they did it by holding over a long time. That's the history of investing and whoever investor you study. And I really encourage you to study investors who have historically over decades made good results. They all have made it over time. Cause time in the market, beats timing the market for investors. It's different in trading, but here we don't talk trading. We talk investing, okay. It's revenue systems, saving systems and investment systems, which means the short term hold is 12 months. That's investing. That's not trading. So we learn from the traders because it's one additional point. It's number 10 in our checklist. But nine of these are fundamental analysis points and that's, and that's an investment tool. Now illiquid supply of Bitcoin. If we look at historical data, every time the illiquid supply created this pattern,


We had bullish diverse, and just people taking down their assets, their crypto assets from the exchanges we have here. Bitcoin, every time people were putting Bitcoin in their own self custody here, we had afterwards a price movement up the bearish divergence, same thing on the opposite. And here again, pattern a pattern, a pattern a and this is exactly what's going on right now. We are now possibly down up to probably 42 K, something like that. So we are still moving down. But what we see here is that while price moves down, the e-liquid supply is moving up and that's a bear sign that confirms that we are still in a bull run, but inside, and this is the bull run. So inside the bull run, we are having a correction. We had a 50% correction in the summer. We're now having a 30% correction, maybe slightly more than 30% number to watch is 42 K.


If we get below 40 K, then we might have to revisit our thesis and then maybe we are wrong and it's not a bullish market anymore. So we'll have a look at that every day here on the channel. Now, what does that mean? What do we do? What do we buy? What do we sell? I cannot give you advice because I don't know your full portfolio allocation and your situation, but we can talk about risk reward metrics that apply to everybody. One risk reward is to look at the number of validators because you know, whatever YouTubers or newspapers or newsletters, whatever you take as an information source. This is probably the most reliable ones, because this is the number of validators. And the more validators, the more decentralized the thing is the better it will react. And the less risky it is because it is also less vulnerable in terms of political risk, regulatory risk, which is coming up.


Building and effective business

 

The SCC is talking about regulating securities. Now Bitcoin is not categorized as a secur. It's categorized as a property, a commodity. Now, now Bitcoin is out of this and Bitcoin has no validators cause it's a proof of work. Proof of stake are layer ones. They have validators. And now let's have a look at the real number of validators because that tells you that Ethereum is the least risky bet. So it's probably right now the best risk reward bet that, that we all have because with 217,000 validators, the system is resilient. It's unstoppable. It has network effect. You remember Metcal low. If you didn't see the video on, on network effects watch the video on network effects, where I show you how to see calculate and interpret. Metcal slow when something has network effect in 2017, 217,000 validators is a network effect. Then it's quite unstoppable.


Now is the risk interior. I'm sure it's moving from one thing, proof of work to a completely different thing, proof of stake. And we are all still waiting to see if it works, but with this risk 217,000 validators, they have their eyes open and they are a, a great, what we call a strategic radar, by the way, strategic radar on this channel, we talk revenue streams, saving revenue systems, saving systems and investment systems and the revenue systems and the saving, how you build a business, which is effective and resilient. This is where your money comes from, where then part of it is net profit. If you manage CASHS right, and this is the part that you use to invest into your assets. Now you need that thing working well before you invest. So if your revenue systems are not in place and you are not running a business that creates revenue on multiple streams every day and creates more freedom and wealth and impact for you, then check this book.


It's right now in Amazon. And it took me 18 years to, to create this book. And it's now available for you for a bar because that 20 bucks or however that is that you would pay for, for, for it, or even less, if you take Thein version on Amazon, that can help you create the revenue systems that bring in cash every month, that you can then utilize for your investment systems. Cause you need three things to be resilient, the revenue systems, the saving systems and your investment system back to your investment system. Second best is Elron. Then we have card Aran and Solana, as you know, Solana is on, on our top 10 list. So it's really good that they're validated their number of validators going up. Solana had some bad press recently, but I think it's over it's overreacting to things. I don't think they are at risk in any shape or form.


On the contrary I have been buying Solana almost every day now and today also at 150, which yeah, I was a little proud of because I, I may have nailed the bulk from there then avalanche, but I've been buying Lana also at 200 at 190 at 180 at 170 Solana is probably going to 600 very soon and to 3000 in, in the long run. So roll pile, the macro guru, he sees Lana at 2000 at the end of these cycles, he he's very bold with his predictions. I don't take them as, as a hundred percent data point, but I take them as an inspiration to think through thesis and to check numbers. So avalanche, where, which is also on our top 10 list of last year. So we're holding it. Avalanche is, has also 1,149 validators, which is pretty cool. Also on our top 10 list is still PDOT the newest entry on our top 10 list for this year is Terra.


Era is Luna, and we have been buying Luna this week, actually at 70, and then at 60 let's check Luna together because I think if you are in the mood of buying, there are two things that I would buy this week. One is Tesla at 965 because you know, we sold Tesla at 1,200 because we thought it's getting back to 900 5850 to 900 to 950. So, so the 950 might be coming. And that would be a great moment to buy some of it. I would buy more at 900. I would buy a lot at 850 and it will soon be up probably to 1000, 200 and long term much higher, of course, te Luna, let's go to Luna.


So it's called Terra, but the symbol is Luna, which is fun for an Italian. You know, Terra is the earth. Luna is the moon in Italian, in my, in my language. Now, if we look at Luna's right now, 57, I bought Luna at 60. I bought Luna at 70 and there is really a lot of Mo of opportunity forward right now. It might go of course, thei 41 on the let's go through the four hours. Let's double check. The RSI Luna is positioned to really crush it. As soon as this correction is over, they are positioned to really do very, very well it's outside of my zone of genius, cause I'm into defi and this is a staple coin play kind of, but it's positioned to do really, really well. I, I, I saw some pretty cool news today, actually about a, a very big V round that they entered and some partnerships that are, that made me even more bullish, but bought them this week at 60 they're now at 57.


The 10 horses that I've picked

 

Do I need to say more double check the a four hours it's 41 better for, but 41 is fine. So that's Terra Luna and Tesla two possible place. Definitely. I've also been buying Solana this week. What else did I want to share with you? Yeah, that was Luna Terra, which has 130 validators. It's not a lot. But it's, it's one of the 10 horses that I've picked moving forward for 2022. And I bought them this week. Now polygon polygon, very undervalued has a to of upside potential of been buying ma polygon, Isma thick symbol, ma M a T I C. Polygon is positioned really, really well. I think it's very undervalued. It can do a lot next year. It's in my top 10 and it stays in the top 10 of next year. Of course, at some point we will all take profits from all of this and put them back into Bitcoin, but that might be in five years.


That might be in three years. That might be in one year. We don't know. I will tell you on this channel when I sell all of them, but right now layer ones with a high number of validators. That's a good place to be. Phantom is also in our staple has not done as well as I thought also the number of validators is disappointing, but it's still a good asset and it has a ton of potential, but very long term, we will not see a lot of action in this bull cycle. So I picked them for my top 10. I think it was the wrong pick for this cycle. And this is how you learn, right? You don't nail every pick don't expect that. So I hope this helps to sum it up. We are still in the bull run. The main hypothesis is still validated. We are in a general bull run. And in that bull run, we have a correction of around 30%, which has been the case historically many, many times. And after that, historically, there was a, a rally of more than 30% now.


Is this something to be concerned about? You decide, but now you have your numbers. You know, also what I have been doing this week, it was buying and you know, so what I was buying, so that might be one more information, point data point on your checklist. I hope you have at least 10 things that you evaluate before you buy or sell anything. And I hope this video helps tomorrow. We have our first life Q and a session. If you wanna pass by bring all your questions and we'll try to answer them. Keep rolling everybody. Yeah.

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