The Trade Desk (TTD) Stock Analysis 2025: Is It a Buy?
π¬ Simon's Portfolio: https://www.strategysprints.com β‘οΈ Free Tools: https://www.strategysprints.com/tools π The Investing Show Newsletter: https://theinvestingshow.beehiiv.com/ This 'unknown' ad-tech stock crashed 40% while insiders quietly bought the dip. Here's why it could be the next 10-bagger hiding in plain sight. Complete fundamental analysis of TTD stock - the programmatic advertising platform that's crushing competition with 25% growth and 95% customer retention. Real Use Case: Deutsche Telekom achieved 11x better conversions + 18x lower costs Strong Fundamentals: 25% growth, 15%+ ROIC with upward trend Triple Moat Defense: Network effects, 95% retention, 1200+ AI models Massive Opportunity: Only 12% international vs 60% of global ad spend "Switzerland of Ads" - Neutral platform vs Google/Meta walled gardens Connected TV (CTV) segment exploding - 40% of business Solved attribution problem with logged-in viewing data Growing faster than programmatic advertising market (25% vs 15%) 67% gross margins with AI-powered optimization Perfect for growth investors, tech stock enthusiasts, and anyone building a long-term wealth portfolio. Includes real portfolio decisions and Sprint Club entry timing. Chapter Markers: 00:46 - Investment Framework: Use case, profitability, growth, moats, risks 01:10 - Use Case Example: Deutsche Telekom's Magenta TV subscription campaign 01:44 - TTD Platform Benefits: AI targeting, better ROI, seed data usage 02:25 - Results: 11x improvement in conversions, 18x lower costs 03:05 - Attribution Solution: CTV users are logged in (no cookie problems) 04:18 - Customer Loyalty: 95% retention rate, sophisticated media buyers 04:36 - Profitability Test: ROIC above 15% requirement - TTD passes with upward trend 05:25 - Sprint Club Alpha: Real-time trade alerts for members 05:42 - Growth Analysis: Currently 25% growth (above 15% requirement) 06:17 - Three Moats: Network effects, 95% loyalty, proprietary IP/algorithms 07:28 - SWOT Strengths: 25.8% market share, 67% gross margins, 1200 ML models 07:54 - Major Weakness: Poor AI transition execution caused 40% crash 08:23 - CTV Opportunity: 40% of business, growing faster than market 08:42 - International Expansion: US 88% vs Rest of World 12% (huge opportunity) 09:14 - Investment Thesis: "Switzerland of Ads" - neutral, transparent platform 10:17 - Competitive Advantage: Open internet vs closed walled gardens (Google, Meta) 11:00 - Buy Decision: Yes, bought the dip at $72 (worth $82) SOCIAL MEDIA ββββββββββββββββββββββββββ π¦ X: https://x.com/simonseverino π LinkedIn: https://at.linkedin.com/in/simonseverino π Free Community: https://www.strategysprints.com/offers/q5PdV9FV DISCLAIMER ββββββββββββββββββββββββββ I am not a professional investor and have never claimed to be. I'm a private investor sharing my experience of what I've learned, where I have had success, and where I've had failures. I share my thoughts on investing and performance with transparency. My approach and goal to investing is to buy high-quality long-term investments in world-class businesses that I call "compounders". I view my investments as businesses, not as stocks. I am a strategy advisor. Over the years as an advisor, I compounded my knowledge. I take the same iterative learning approach to my study of investing. I study investing as a craft in the continual pursuit of being better. I will make mistakes in investment decisions from time to time. Results are not guaranteed. Please do not blindly follow me into any investments, and make sure your portfolio and investments are built around your specific income, risk tolerance, personality, timeline, and overall circumstances.
